Winter Storm Update #2

This winter storm has been one of the craziest winter storms to predict and the variability has been quite evident. My forecast remains the same, 3-6 inches of snow with locally higher amounts and about a quarter inch of ice. The setup this time around is that temperatures will fall into the mid twenties through the night due to cold air damming. What happens is that cold air from a high pressure system to the north gets caught at the mountains and stays within the piedmont of North Carolina, then the system that rides up the coast feeds moist air into the same area and you get a snowstorm. The main concern this time around is that the low pressure system may travel close enough to the piedmont that the moist air could warm up the air enough that the snow could become sleet or freezing rain. As the day progresses and the storm gets closer and closer, the snow may change to a wintry mix or freezing rain. Whether or not this happens is heavily dependent on how far south the storm goes and when it decides to turn north. If the storm travels further north and stays further inland, snow totals would lower to 1-3 inches and ice totals would increase to a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice. If the storm were to travel further south and go closer to the outer banks, snowfall totals would rise to 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts and about one-tenth of an inch of ice. Either way, this is a very hazardous situation and people should prepare for power outages and icy roads just in case the storm is worse than anticipated. Models still show a significant snowfall event for most of the Carolinas, this kind of snow would be very good for sledding. Also, the snow that falls should be heavy and wet, meaning more power trouble and higher accumulations.

Winter Storm Update #1

There has been a lot of uncertainty surrounding this storm due to the varying model forecasts and the temperatures being so close to freezing. The models look something like this: GFS (American Model): 3-5 inches, GEM (Canadian Model) 1-3 inches, ECMWF (European Model) 7-10 inches, NAM 10-12. Most forecasts tend to stick with the first two models I mentioned, but I am going to stick with 3-6 inches for now with some areas receiving upwards of 10 inches (unlikely but possible). Snow should remain light through Tuesday night with the heaviest snow falling Wednesday morning through early afternoon. In fact the NAM and ECMWF model drop about 6-8 inches of snow within 6 hours. However ice will be a significant threat as well as causing dangerous driving conditions and widespread power outages. Stay safe and enjoy the snow (again)!

Potential Significant Winter Storm Feb. 10-12

Yes! Another snowstorm! This time I expect for central North Carolina to receive 3-6 inches of snow Monday night through Wednesday night, with the heaviest snow falling on Wednesday. There is a general consensus with models in accumulations, stretching from about 4-10+ inches of snow. The reason my totals are not that high is because the temperatures should hover around the freezing mark throughout the storm so not all of the precipitation will be snow. Also, the track of the storm is still not entirely certain, with some models sending the storm out to sea and others riding it up the coast. I don't think that dry air will be as much of a problem in this storm as it was in the last one, but similar wild card factors could still be present in this storm. I will make multiple short updates on this storm from Monday through Wednesday as it arrives and warnings/advisories are issued.

Forecaster Facts #14

There are many different shapes of snowflakes, almost 10 in fact! When most people think of a snowflake they will tend to think about fernlike stellar dendrites, these snowflakes are called this because the feathery looking branches extending from the center are similar to the fronds of a fern. They are one of the largest types of snowflakes and fall at temperatures near freezing.

Surprise Snow!

Some areas around the triangle may receive some flurries or light snow this evening and tonight. However, I do not expect much accumulation to occur, if any, but people traveling during the minor event should be careful for any slick spots on the road.

Forecaster Facts #13

We all know that no two snowflakes are alike, but did you know that snowflakes are actually transparent and act like a prism, breaking up the light.  The human eye cannot see this and the flake appears white. The color of snow can differ depending on its environment, but it generally gets its color from the particles around it, hence the phrase "Don't eat yellow snow".

Potential North Carolina Snowstorm

       It has come to my attention that a chance for significant amounts of snow could fall Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Many parts of North Carolina could receive over half a foot of snow. The snowfall amounts should increase the further north and east you are. I would also like to note that there is a little bit of inconsistence between certain model runs so there is a higher sense of uncertainty on where the heaviest snow will fall. Therefore, snowfall amounts could total anywhere from 2-10 inches of snow. This is heavily dependent on the track of the system, if it travels to far out to sea snowfall amounts will decrease, and if the storm hugs the coast, central North Carolina could get a major snow event.
       Setup: A cold front will move in Monday night, bringing in very cold air, this air will be trapped in central NC by the mountains. A low pressure system will move up the coast, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night before departing around the middle of the day Wednesday. I expect accumulation to be 3-7 inches with locally higher amounts, especially toward the north and east.
       The accumulation amount varies so much because the track of the system is still slightly uncertain and snow banding can give areas more snow than the surrounding area. Snow banding is the phenomena that occurs when winds blow the precipitation into a band, favoring heavier snow in a localized area.
       Summary: temperatures should remain below freezing throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. We could see some of the strongest cold of the year on Wednesday night, with lows dropping into potentially the single digits. Snow should start around midday Tuesday and end Wednesday morning totaling around 3-7+ inches of snow throughout central NC. Due to the cold temperatures and heavy snowfall, I urge anyone who travels to exercise caution and to not travel alone, they should also make sure they have enough food to eat for a day or so in case the power goes out. Stay safe and enjoy the snow! :)