Henry's Hurricane Season Forecast

I expect this hurricane season to be active. The Atlantic is very conducive for hurricane development with warm water and reduced wind shear. The Atlantic has been warm for quite a while and I expect it to remain that way for time to come. This is because the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is in its warm phase that is part of an approximately 30-year cycle in which the ocean temperatures fluctuate between warm and cold (not because of global warming). This year, the waters that are above average are in the southern North Atlantic and along the United States East coast, while the middle of the Atlantic is below average.

         Wind shear is another important factor in hurricane development. The state of the Pacific Ocean can help determine how much wind shear will occur. El Niño’s, when the Pacific is warmer than normal and the winds flow in the opposite direction usually hinders hurricane development in the Atlantic. On the other hand, years with La Niña’s (the opposite of an El Niño)

usually spell trouble for the East coast of the United States. La Niña years tend to produce more storms in the Atlantic with higher intensities, and more storms for that matter. However, I expect the pacific to remain in its neutral phase throughout this Hurricane season so I believe the wind shear will be conducive for hurricane development.

          Now for the hardest yet most important part… Where will the storms hit? This year the Bermuda high, the system that steers the tropical systems, will be stronger than normal. This will force storms toward the east coast and will block storms from turning out into the sea. I do believe that the Gulf of Mexico will dodge the majority of the storms but I can’t rule out a hit. The combination of a large swath of warm water, low wind shear, and a stronger Bermuda high will send storm after storm toward the east coast. I do not expect every storm to be strong and every storm to make a United States landfall though, but I do see increased chances of a major hurricane United States landfall. If you live anywhere from Florida to Massachusetts, I urge you to exercise caution and good judgment this Hurricane season, and remember that all it takes is one storm to cause life loss and destruction.

Statistical forecast

Named storms: 17

Hurricanes: 10

Major Hurricanes: 4

U.S. Named Storm Landfalls: 6

Storm Names

Andrea             Barry                Chantal            Dorian             

Erin               Humberto           Ingrid               Jerry

Karen                Lorenzo           Melissa            Nestor

Olga            Pablo                Rebekah          Sebastien       

Tanya               Van                    Wendy