Strange Early Leave Color Change and Fall

I have noticed the leaves on some of the trees near and around my house have been changing color and falling off recently.  I have also received confirmation that this is happening elsewhere along the east coast. Normally leaves can do this if the weather is dry or temperatures are well below average. However these are not contributing factors where I live.  So I began to look into the amount of solar radiation the surface has received this summer. Plants are dependent on solar radiation for photosynthesis to produce "food". During Autumn the amount of solar radiation the surface receives decreases along with the temperature (of the surface) causing plants to stop replenishing the chlorophyll in the leaves which creates the color change in fall. Because temperature and precipitation don't necessarily apply, I believe that decreased solar radiation is causing this leave change. This could occur due to multiple factors like volcanic ash in the atmosphere, increased cloud cover, the sun itself, or air pollution/other man made things. The two factors that I think apply the most to this situation are: increased cloud cover, and a sunspot maximum that could be the lowest in 100 years. The east coast has had an extremely wet summer, especially the southeast, and I, personally, haven't seen a cloudless day in a very, very long time. Also, on a cloudy day the surface receives only about 1/3 the amount of sunlight it would get on a sunny day. Sunspots, when facing the Earth can result in more solar radiation reaching the Earth than the sun without sunspots. The plants, who were most likely used to conditions other than the two I just described probably assumed that because they were receiving less solar radiation, that it was fall and time for the leaves to change color and fall off.

Henry's Storm Safety Tips #7

Do not go outside during a hailstorm, no matter how badly you want to save your brand new car (unless you value it more than your life). On March 28, 2000 in Lake Worth, Texas a 19-year-old boy was killed by a grapefruit sized hailstone while trying to save his new car.

Forecaster Facts #12

If a front/wave pattern develops on the interface between warm and cold air extreme temperature variations can occur in a matter of minutes. On January 22, 1943, Spearfish, South Dakota experienced an event like this. As of 7:30 AM the temperature was -4 degrees Fahrenheit (F), it then rose to 45F by 7:32 AM. Then the the temperature increased to 54F by 9:00 AM before falling back to -4F by 9:27 AM.

Weekly Overview July 17-27

This weekly overview is late so I have decided to combine it with next week's. A heat wave will grip the majority of the Carolinas until Sunday. The temperatures will be in the 90s in the piedmont with heat indexes soaring into the 100s. Sunday through Wednesday the temperatures will be in the upper 80s but the heat will return late week with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s with heat indexes once again reaching the 100s. There will be the chance for afternoon thunderstorms throughout almost the entire week(s). The mountains will be cooler staying in the lower 80s until the weekend when it will cool off to the mid to upper 70s. It will stay like this throughout the remainder of the week(s). There is the chance for afternoon thunderstorms for about the first 2/3 of the week(s), then the weather should be dry. The beach should have temperatures in the upper 80s for most of the week(s) but the last few days should be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indexes in the 100s. There is the chance for afternoon thunderstorms mid-to-late week(s).

Sorry

I am terribly sorry for not posting the last couple of days. I have been much busier than the average young adult and unfortunately the busy trend will continue through the entirety of next week, however I will sufficient time to post through Friday. But it will be very hard for me to post after that. So, to make things easier and more reliable for everyone, I will post the next two forecaster facts and the next storm safety tip. I will try my very best to post next week  but I can't be sure at the moment whether or not I can post because I don't quite know just how busy I will be.

Henry's Storm Safety Tips #6

As soon as you see a storm cloud or if any type of warning is issued, it's a good idea to take shelter because lightning can strike up to 10 miles ahead of a storm, even if the sky above you is blue, hence the name "bolt from the blue".

Forecaster Facts #11

In the inside of a hurricane's eye-wall, the winds spin in the opposite direction.

Forecaster Facts #10

A normal tornado has multiple vortices within it that rotate within the tornado. Some times the multiple vortices are very evident and visible.

Forecaster Facts #9

Cumulonimbus clouds can grow up to almost 6 and a quarter miles from its base to its cap!

Last Update on Chantal

Chantal will move up the east coast in the coming days. It brings with it the threat for flooding. This risk is heightened due to the saturated grounds. Any heavy rainfall will runoff into streams and rivers causing them to swell. Please exercise caution when driving in flood conditions and remember to always turn around when you see a flooded street.

Henry's Storm Safety Tips #5

In order to stay safe from storms, its a good idea to know what to look for before a storm hits. For example, at night, if you see small, bright, blue-green flashes near the ground (power lines snapping), it could be sign of a tornado. If you see this, take cover immediately.

Forecaster Facts #8

A single snowstorm can snow the energy equivalent of 120 atomic bombs.

Notice

I have once again been very busy and I apologize for not being able to post as much as usual today. The next two "Forecaster Facts" will come out tomorrow. The primary remnants of Chantal will move up the east coast and may produce tropical downpours that can trigger flash flooding.

Henry's Storm Safety Tips #4

In a thunderstorm with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Avoid showers, sinks, and bathtubs because lightning can travel through your plumbing and into your body.

Forecaster Facts #7

The cloud type known as mammatus (low hanging cell-like clouds) can be an early sign of a coming tornado.

Chantal Dissipates

Chantal has weakened to a tropical wave. The remnants of Chantal will affect Florida in the coming days and could affect the rest of the southeast soon after. The fact that Chantal is now a tropical wave means that it could track further west than anticipated. However, I think that Florida has the greatest chance of being impacted by Chantal. I will update you on this storm again tomorrow.

Notice

I will have three posts coming out later tonight. However, I will be busy the next few hours and might not have all of them up by 10 PM tonight. They will be up though before midnight. Thank you for understanding.

Forecaster Facts #6

Cirrus clouds (high, wispy, and white) usually are a sign of a coming change in the weather pattern.

Another Update on Chantal

Newest advisory on Chantal from the National Hurricane Center: wind speed-65 mph   minimum central pressure-1006 mb   location-15.2N 63.7W   movement-west-northwest at 26 mph

I have confidence that this storm will hit somewhere from Florida to the Carolinas as a weak to moderate tropical storm. The main threat will be heavy rain and localized flooding with some isolated gusty winds.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a tropical wave coming off of Africa will be worth watching. I think that it has a good chance of developing. I will update you on this system throughout this week.

Update on Tropical Storm Chantal

Newest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:wind speed-50mph minimum central pressure-1010 mb location-11.8 N 55 W movement-west-northwest at 26 mph.
I personally believe that Chantal will affect the United States, whether it's the gulf coast or the east coast depending on Chantal's strength. I also think that Florida has the greatest chance of getting hit (the models seem to be agreeing on a Florida landfall). I don't expect Chantal to be much of a threat though, because she is forecast to be weak and Chantal is rather small.

Notice

I have not posted about Tropical Storm Chantal yet today and will not until the hurricane hunters who are flying into Chantal give us an update on the storm. When I get this update and post about it I will also share some thoughts on the storm. Until then... Tropical Storm Chantal has winds of 45 mph, a barometric pressure of 1005 mb, and is located at 11.8N and 53.9W. Chantal is moving west-northwest at 26 mph.

Henry's Storm Safety Tips #3

This may seem cheesy and overemphasized but I must say it... Always be prepared for a severe thunderstorm or tornado before a warning is issued. There is an average of 12 minutes between the time a warning is issued and when the storm or tornado strikes. That's less time than you think, so be prepared.

Forecaster Fact #5

The next few forecaster facts will deal with forecasting the weather based on the clouds you see in the sky. For example, altocumulus clouds (small circular clouds in rows with varying densities) can be an early sign of coming rain.

Weekly Overview July 7-13

This week will be seasonably hot with multiple chances for rain throughout the week. The temps will hover in the upper 80s and lower 90s throughout the week. The mountains will have decreasing rain chances throughout the week and temperatures will be in the 70s. Late in the week you may have to watch for a tropical system. There is a chance this storm could threaten the east coast, but I do not expect this storm to be terribly strong. I will update you on this system tomorrow and throughout the week.

Forecaster Facts #4

The highest official recorded speed on earth is 253 MPH. It was recorded on Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia on April 10, 1996.

Henry's Storm Safety Tips #2

If you are in the path of a hurricane, and you are stuck between choosing to evacuate or stay, always evacuate. Many people die each year from hurricanes because they underestimate the strength and severity of the storm.

"Forecaster Facts #3"

Afraid of sharks? You are more likely to get struck by lightning than get bitten by a shark. One man got struck by lightning more than 5 times and survived.

"Forecaster Facts #2"

8640000 lightning strikes occur on Earth per day. That's 100 strikes per second!

Henry's Storm Safety Tips

This is another new series here at Storm-cast. In this series, every other day I will post a safety tip that you will hopefully find useful. Today's safety tip: It is always a good idea to wear a helmet during a severe thunderstorm or a tornado-producing thunderstorm because debris striking your head in a thunderstorm is commonly overlooked but it can be fatal.

Henry's Summer Forecast

For this forecast, I've decided to sum up the summer in just a few key words. So, here is my summer forecast for the Carolinas.

-Hot, but cooler than last year due to the increased rain

-Humid and rainy

-Hurricane threat later on

"Forecaster Facts"

This will be an on-site series where every day I will post one interesting fact, event, or unique forecasting strategy. Today's "Forecasting Fact": A very long time ago, farmers and American Indians used the moon to predict the weather. For example, a crescent moon with its points facing upward (like a bowl) meant that a dry spell was coming.

Fourth of July Forecast for East Coast

The tropical moisture flow that has been ruining many plans for a while now will begin to move away. A high pressure system moving in from the coast will change the airflow, moving the "river of rain" to the west.  In the morning it should stay dry but as we go into the afternoon there is a chance for a shower and thunderstorm, but thankfully they should move away fast enough to not affect your firework show. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon and in the mid 70s in the evening. Happy Fourth of July!

Henry's Hurricane Season Forecast

I expect this hurricane season to be active. The Atlantic is very conducive for hurricane development with warm water and reduced wind shear. The Atlantic has been warm for quite a while and I expect it to remain that way for time to come. This is because the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is in its warm phase that is part of an approximately 30-year cycle in which the ocean temperatures fluctuate between warm and cold (not because of global warming). This year, the waters that are above average are in the southern North Atlantic and along the United States East coast, while the middle of the Atlantic is below average.

         Wind shear is another important factor in hurricane development. The state of the Pacific Ocean can help determine how much wind shear will occur. El Niño’s, when the Pacific is warmer than normal and the winds flow in the opposite direction usually hinders hurricane development in the Atlantic. On the other hand, years with La Niña’s (the opposite of an El Niño)

usually spell trouble for the East coast of the United States. La Niña years tend to produce more storms in the Atlantic with higher intensities, and more storms for that matter. However, I expect the pacific to remain in its neutral phase throughout this Hurricane season so I believe the wind shear will be conducive for hurricane development.

          Now for the hardest yet most important part… Where will the storms hit? This year the Bermuda high, the system that steers the tropical systems, will be stronger than normal. This will force storms toward the east coast and will block storms from turning out into the sea. I do believe that the Gulf of Mexico will dodge the majority of the storms but I can’t rule out a hit. The combination of a large swath of warm water, low wind shear, and a stronger Bermuda high will send storm after storm toward the east coast. I do not expect every storm to be strong and every storm to make a United States landfall though, but I do see increased chances of a major hurricane United States landfall. If you live anywhere from Florida to Massachusetts, I urge you to exercise caution and good judgment this Hurricane season, and remember that all it takes is one storm to cause life loss and destruction.

Statistical forecast

Named storms: 17

Hurricanes: 10

Major Hurricanes: 4

U.S. Named Storm Landfalls: 6

Storm Names

Andrea             Barry                Chantal            Dorian             

Erin               Humberto           Ingrid               Jerry

Karen                Lorenzo           Melissa            Nestor

Olga            Pablo                Rebekah          Sebastien       

Tanya               Van                    Wendy

Welcome

Hello all and welcome to storm-cast.blogspot.com. My name is Henry (Jrweatherman) and I am the only forecaster on this site so therefore I am the chief forecaster. However, I am younger than most meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, and forecasters out there, so please do not bash me if I make a mistake. Regardless, feel free to let me know about any problems you have with this site or my forecasts. I will try my hardest to forecast accurately in advance.  This site will mainly focus on weather events in the southeast, but primarily the Carolinas. Every week I will issue a short paragraph forecast on what I think the weather pattern will be like that week as well as an overview of tropical activity, severe weather or winter storms, depending on the season. I will also focus on extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornados, blizzards, etc. In addition, I will do some medium to long range forecasting and seasonal forecasts as well as a surprise section about a certain type of storm that occurs in the ocean during the summer and fall months. Thank you for visiting my website, and I hope you find my forecasts useful.