Winter Storm Update #2

This winter storm has been one of the craziest winter storms to predict and the variability has been quite evident. My forecast remains the same, 3-6 inches of snow with locally higher amounts and about a quarter inch of ice. The setup this time around is that temperatures will fall into the mid twenties through the night due to cold air damming. What happens is that cold air from a high pressure system to the north gets caught at the mountains and stays within the piedmont of North Carolina, then the system that rides up the coast feeds moist air into the same area and you get a snowstorm. The main concern this time around is that the low pressure system may travel close enough to the piedmont that the moist air could warm up the air enough that the snow could become sleet or freezing rain. As the day progresses and the storm gets closer and closer, the snow may change to a wintry mix or freezing rain. Whether or not this happens is heavily dependent on how far south the storm goes and when it decides to turn north. If the storm travels further north and stays further inland, snow totals would lower to 1-3 inches and ice totals would increase to a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice. If the storm were to travel further south and go closer to the outer banks, snowfall totals would rise to 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts and about one-tenth of an inch of ice. Either way, this is a very hazardous situation and people should prepare for power outages and icy roads just in case the storm is worse than anticipated. Models still show a significant snowfall event for most of the Carolinas, this kind of snow would be very good for sledding. Also, the snow that falls should be heavy and wet, meaning more power trouble and higher accumulations.